Cheech And Chong Mathematics

Mark Kleiman (who has a much-anticipated book coming out soon) over at the Reality-Based Community at UCLA has done his math (albeit with excessive use of paragraphs, but I guess I like the added emphasis they provide):

California Assemblymember Tom Ammiano has introduced a bill to legalize cannabis in California. The bill quite sensibly recognizes that California can't have a legal market while the drug remains banned under federal law, so in the meantime it defaults to a policy I prefer on other grounds: permission for individuals to produce cannabis for their own use and to consume it.

But of course doing it that way wouldn't produce any revenue for the state, and it's the prospect of revenue that is getting people interested. If cannabis were legalized at the federal level, the Ammiano bill would impose a tax of $50 per ounce. The article quotes the Board of Equalization as estimating that such a tax would produce $1.3 billion in annual revenue for the state.

Hmmmmmmmm.

So a $50/oz. tax is supposed to produce $1.3B/yr.

That implies $1.3B/$50 = 42m oz./yr.

The population of California over the age of 12 is about 27M.

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NS-DUH) estimates monthly prevalence of cannabis use among Californians over the age of 12 at 6.8%.

That gives 6.8% x 27M = 1.87M monthly users. Consumption of 42M ounces per year shared among 1.87M monthly users works out to 22 oz./user/year. An ounce is 28.3 grams, so that's 622 grans per year, or 1.7 grams per day, for everyone in California who smokes at least monthly.

The World Drug Report estimates average the average U.S. joint at about half a gram. (I recall seeing smaller numbers; for comparison, a tobacco cigarette weighs about a gram.)

Assuming half a gram per joint, 1.7 grams would make something more than three joints.

Per day. Average.

Can you say "bullsh*t"? Can you say "What have these people been smoking"?

I was sure that you could.