Does the nuclear test that NorKor conducted mean the six party talks have failed or are on the way to failure? Weigh in if you'd like using the comments. Here is Eli Lake on the matter.
This has extremely serious implications for Obama's heretofore preferred method (diplomacy first) of deterring Iran and NorKor from further advancements of the nuclear arms capabilities. NorKor is far ahead of Iran from what we know. But there is a lot that we don't know in both instances. This is a scary, scary moment for the world. I really feel like Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities may be nearer on the horizon than most people think (although there are still lots of issues with an Israeli strike). My guess is that nothing substantial will happen before the Iranian elections taking place in June, but the results will have huge implications for the future of Iran. I have a lurking suspicion that Ahmadinejad will win, though I pray he does not for the sake of the Iranian and Israeli people. An Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities means massive numbers of civilian casualties (for both Iran and Israel) according to a study done by CSIS (available here). There are very few (if any...?) scenarios that allow for a successful hit on Iran that don't incur serious losses and potential for widespread regional conflagration.
This is an incredibly challenging scenario.
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8 years ago
Indeed there are too many unstable variables in this melting pot and it often seems like it is at the point of overflowing.
ReplyDeleteI believe, unfortunately, that there very little chance at this point of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear arms capability. The box has been opened in the Middle East. I do not mean to sound defeatist, but what is there we can actually do to stop them?
Israel is a dying player in the region, a country that I have argued will basically not exist in 20 years if it continues on its current course. We need to focus on nurturing new allies in the Middle East, most notably our fledgling democracy in Iraq. As you make note above, an Israeli, or American for that matter, strike on Iranian facilities, would threaten a total conflagration in the region that could unmake all our progress there and give rise to even greater extremists.
Here are my two "buts":
1) you never know how the Arab world will react to an Iranian nuclear power. They will certainly be eager to arm themselves, but they might also be driven into a stronger alliance with the West.
2)Perhaps the time has come for total war in the Middle East? I am not saying it would be pretty, but it maybe the only course possible at this point. Bush wanted to bring the fight to the heart of the Arab and Islamic world, maybe these are the chickens coming home to roost.
I agree with option 2. It seems like all Iranian strategy is predicated on the fact that we won't actually forcibly disarm them. Total war would be terrible for the Iranian people, but they'd only have their leaders to blame, especially if we convened and international coalition.
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